Abstract:
Crude oil (CO) and natural gas (NG) play an important role in the world economy. The Arab countries (ACs) share 64percent of the total oil reserves and 40percent of the NG reserves [OPEC, 2003. The Annual Statistical Bulletin]. On the production side, ACs contribute to 30percent and 9percent of the world production of CO and NG, respectively. Accurate forecast models are needed to do better planning and create less risky business environment. In this paper, an econometric model is built to capture the behavior of CO and NG production in the ESCWA11ESCWA is the UN Economic and Social Council of West Asia. It deals with thirteen Arab countries; namely, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Palestinian authority, Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Oman and Yemen. countries. The model is used to forecast future production trends of CO and NG, and thus provide a powerful tool for researchers, planners and investors working in the energy field. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.