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Matrix models for childhood infections: A Bayesian approach with applications to rubella and mumps

Show simple item record Kanaan M.N. Farrington C.P.
dc.contributor.editor 2005 2017-10-18T13:33:47Z 2017-10-18T13:33:47Z 2005
dc.identifier 10.1017/S0950268805004528
dc.identifier.issn 09502688
dc.description.abstract Mathematical modelling is an established tool for planning and monitoring vaccination programmes. However, the matrices describing contact rates are based on subjective choices, which have a large impact on results. This paper reviews published models and obtains prior model probabilities based on publication frequency and expert opinion. Using serological survey data on rubella and mumps, Bayesian methods of model choice are applied to select the most plausible models. Estimates of the basic reproduction number R0 are derived, taking into account model uncertainty and individual heterogeneity in contact rates. Twenty-two models are documented, for which publication frequency and expert opinion are negatively correlated. Using the expert prior with individual heterogeneity, R0=6·1 [95percent credible region (CR) 4·3-9·2] for rubella and R0=19·3 (95percent CR 4·0-31·5) for mumps. The posterior modes are insensitive to the prior for rubella but not for mumps. Overall, assortative models with individual heterogeneity are recommended. © 2005 Cambridge University Press.
dc.format.extent Pages: (1009-1021)
dc.language English
dc.publisher NEW YORK
dc.relation.ispartof Publication Name: Epidemiology and Infection; Publication Year: 2005; Volume: 133; no. 6; Pages: (1009-1021);
dc.source Scopus
dc.title Matrix models for childhood infections: A Bayesian approach with applications to rubella and mumps
dc.type Article
dc.contributor.affiliation Kanaan, M.N., Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
dc.contributor.affiliation Farrington, C.P., Department of Statistics, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, United Kingdom
dc.contributor.authorAddress Farrington, C.P.; Department of Statistics, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, United Kingdom; email:
dc.contributor.authorCorporate University: American University of Beirut; Faculty: Faculty of Health Sciences; Department: Epidemiology and Population Health;
dc.contributor.authorDepartment Epidemiology and Population Health
dc.contributor.authorFaculty Faculty of Health Sciences
dc.contributor.authorInitials Kanaan, MN
dc.contributor.authorInitials Farrington, CPA
dc.contributor.authorReprintAddress Farrington, CPA (reprint author), Open Univ, Dept Stat, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, Bucks, England.
dc.contributor.authorUniversity American University of Beirut
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dc.description.citedCount 16
dc.description.citedTotWOSCount 16
dc.description.citedWOSCount 16
dc.format.extentCount 13
dc.identifier.coden EPINE
dc.identifier.pubmedID 16274497
dc.identifier.scopusID 28244441245
dc.publisher.address 40 WEST 20TH ST, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 USA
dc.relation.ispartOfISOAbbr Epidemiol. Infect.
dc.relation.ispartOfIssue 6
dc.relation.ispartofPubTitle Epidemiology and Infection
dc.relation.ispartofPubTitleAbbr Epidemiol. Infect.
dc.relation.ispartOfVolume 133
dc.source.ID WOS:000233863200006
dc.type.publication Journal
dc.subject.otherChemCAS Mumps Vaccine
dc.subject.otherChemCAS Rubella Vaccine
dc.subject.otherIndex adolescent
dc.subject.otherIndex adult
dc.subject.otherIndex article
dc.subject.otherIndex Bayes theorem
dc.subject.otherIndex child
dc.subject.otherIndex compartment model
dc.subject.otherIndex correlation analysis
dc.subject.otherIndex data analysis
dc.subject.otherIndex epidemiological data
dc.subject.otherIndex female
dc.subject.otherIndex health survey
dc.subject.otherIndex human
dc.subject.otherIndex infection sensitivity
dc.subject.otherIndex information retrieval
dc.subject.otherIndex male
dc.subject.otherIndex mathematical computing
dc.subject.otherIndex mathematical model
dc.subject.otherIndex medical documentation
dc.subject.otherIndex medical expert
dc.subject.otherIndex medical literature
dc.subject.otherIndex mumps
dc.subject.otherIndex Mumps virus
dc.subject.otherIndex nonhuman
dc.subject.otherIndex patient selection
dc.subject.otherIndex population research
dc.subject.otherIndex probability
dc.subject.otherIndex publication
dc.subject.otherIndex rubella
dc.subject.otherIndex Rubella virus
dc.subject.otherIndex sensitivity analysis
dc.subject.otherIndex serology
dc.subject.otherIndex systematic review
dc.subject.otherIndex virus transmission
dc.subject.otherIndex Bayes Theorem
dc.subject.otherIndex Child
dc.subject.otherIndex Child, Preschool
dc.subject.otherIndex Humans
dc.subject.otherIndex Models, Statistical
dc.subject.otherIndex Mumps
dc.subject.otherIndex Mumps Vaccine
dc.subject.otherIndex Rubella
dc.subject.otherIndex Rubella Vaccine
dc.subject.otherIndex Vaccination
dc.subject.otherKeywordPlus VACCINATION SCHEDULES
dc.subject.otherKeywordPlus TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS
dc.subject.otherKeywordPlus MEASLES VACCINATION
dc.subject.otherKeywordPlus MATHEMATICAL-MODEL
dc.subject.otherKeywordPlus MASS VACCINATION
dc.subject.otherKeywordPlus CONTACT PATTERNS
dc.subject.otherKeywordPlus AGE
dc.subject.otherKeywordPlus IMMUNIZATION
dc.subject.otherKeywordPlus COMPLEXITY
dc.subject.otherKeywordPlus VIRUS
dc.subject.otherWOS Public, Environmental and Occupational Health
dc.subject.otherWOS Infectious Diseases

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