Abstract:
The exploration of natural gas (NG) in the East Mediterranean has been occurring in an environment characterized by continuous geopolitical instability. Countries are seeking ways to weigh development costs with geopolitical risks, which may hamper gas export to final destinations in the region, Europe and beyond. This paper aims to explore economic viability of NG export pipelines from Lebanon to different markets by developing a techno-economic model, and to assess the geopolitical implications associated with the proposed pipelines. As the economic dimension is not the only factor in any export strategy in the region, this paper will also present an overview of the major geopolitical players and their direct or indirect impact on the development of export options for Lebanon. For instance, the long lasting conflicts between the Palestinians and the Israelis, the Turkish-Cypriot knot, the provoking foreign politics of Turkey, the Iranian expanding influence in the region and the influence of the super powers in regional politics are all discussed with a view to understand the geopolitical impact on the gas export decisions. The paper concludes with policy recommendations to inform decision makers about the possible export options from economic and geopolitical perspectives. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
