Utility scale solar PV for the Lebanese power sector : investigating the opportunities of utility scale battery storage -

Abstract

Given the current status of the Lebanese power system, this paper assesses the opportunity to leapfrog directly to utility-scale solar PV farms, coupled with Li-ion battery storage, as compared to the current plans by the Government of Lebanon that rely mostly on conventional power generation. The continuing and structural supply-demand power deficit in Lebanon has considerable negative social, economic, and environmental implications. With the current decrease in the costs of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and lithium-ion batteries, an opportunity presents itself to fill this supply-demand deficit. In this paper, the Lebanese power system is studied, modeled and projected to the year 2020. Different scenarios are built and compared in order to study the technical and economic feasibility of grid-connected PV systems coupled with large-scale lithium-ion battery energy storage systems to achieve an overall more reliable and adequate power system. Simulations are run using Homer pro to optimize for the lowest cost of electricity. Furthermore, additional benefits of the renewable energy system, such as its capacity value and impact on investment deferral are studied, calculated and discussed. A cost-benefit analysis is then applied to compare the different systems and incorporate benefits that are not captured by the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) metric. The results show that incorporating grid-connected utility-scale solar PV plants coupled with battery energy storage systems can decrease the overall LCOE of the best-case conventional Lebanese power system (based on natural gas) from an average of c9-kWh to c8-kWh. Furthermore, an economic limit of approximately 30percent solar PV penetration has been calculated due to the current load profile of the Lebanese economy, beyond which, any further solar PV penetration will yield excessive curtailment of solar PV, undermining the economics of the technology. Sensitivity analysis is undertaken while adopting various values for the cost of natural gas a