Envisioning Efficient Energy Transition Pathways for the Residential Sector in Lebanon

Abstract

Lebanon’s residential sector is experiencing chronic electricity shortages driven by aging infrastructure, economic instability, suppressed utility supply, and widespread dependence on costly and limited private diesel generators. These conditions have led to artificially low energy consumption, masking the true demand and creating a major challenge for accurate energy planning. This thesis analyzes Lebanon’s electricity crisis and government response, and proposes strategic pathways for energy transition in the residential sector, focusing on three pillars: Electrification of Mobility & Cooking, Energy Efficiency Applications, and Energy Mix Optimization. Using the LEAP energy modeling platform, four transition scenarios are evaluated— Baseline, Transitional, Pioneering, and Aspirational. The Baseline scenario highlights the consequences of inaction, with significant unmet demand and continued reliance on fossil fuels. The Transitional scenario introduces electrification, leading to a ~10% increase in generation needs. The Pioneering scenario incorporates energy efficiency measures, reducing residential demand by up to 45%. The Aspirational scenario combines electrification, deep efficiency, and a diversified renewable-based energy mix— eliminating unmet demand, reducing CO₂ emissions by over 40%, and cutting the levelized cost of electricity by up to 5%. The results underscore the critical role of energy efficiency, particularly in HVAC systems, lighting, building envelope upgrades, smart controls, and behavioral change programs. Additionally, optimizing Lebanon’s renewable energy potential—especially solar PV and hydropower—yields significant environmental and economic benefits. The study also highlights the need for enabling policies and financing tools, such as energy performance standards, energy efficiency obligations, ESCO contracts, green bonds, on bill financing, and blended finance. These mechanisms, paired with regulatory reforms and public-private collaboration, are essential for advancing Lebanon’s energy transition toward a sustainable, resilient, and equitable future