Seasonal Variability of the Cost of Healthy Diets in Lebanon

Abstract

This study examines the affordability of healthy diets in Lebanon, with a particular focus on the consumption of locally sourced and seasonally available foods. It aims to evaluate the economic feasibility of adhering to a diet centered on fresh, local, and seasonal produce by conducting a comprehensive analysis of average market prices, seasonal fluctuations in the availability of fruits and vegetables, and their nutritional profiles. Using a mixed-method approach, the study integrates six-year market price data analysis with healthy meal plan modeling based on the Lebanese Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (LFBDG), compared against the EAT-Lancet reference diet. Nutritionist Pro™ software was employed to model and assess nutrient adequacy of three 7-day seasonal meal plans (summer, winter and spring), while affordability was assessed using spreadsheets for costing and benchmark comparisons with local and global dietary cost indicators. Findings show that seasonal price variability significantly affects food affordability, with off season produce consistently costing more. Despite exceeding the cost thresholds of Lebanon’s SMEB and MEB baskets, the average seasonal diet cost ($2.90/day) remained significantly below the global average cost of a healthy diet in LMICs ($4.20/day), indicating statistical affordability when seasonality is optimized. However, nutritional modeling revealed moderate over-reliance on animal-sourced protein and underconsumption of legumes, nuts, and healthy fats, diverging from sustainability-focused dietary targets. This thesis demonstrates that it is possible to design cost-effective, nutritionally adequate seasonal diets in Lebanon, especially when incorporating preserved foods (mouneh), wild edibles, and traditional culinary practices. Such diets support food sovereignty, enhance local food economies, and provide culturally acceptable solutions to improve diet quality and affordability amidst economic crisis and rising food insecurity.