Lebanon amidst the spiral of a Middle East in flames

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Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy & International Affairs

Abstract

A piece that was written and published as Israel’s war on Lebanon raged, the 2024 US presidential campaign was in full swing, and the war on Gaza continued, and still does. However, we have still decided to publish it as a piece that not only deals with the many unknowns at the time of publication, but more importantly, as it provides a preliminary historical assessment for understanding the 2023-2024 war on Lebanon, and what this most destructive episode in Lebanon’s history bodes for the country’s future in the midst of a shifting regional and international order.

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The 2024 Israel War on Lebanon is similar to the 1982 War, although many have drawn comparisons to the 2006 conflict. Regarding the American foreign policy in the region and its vision and plan for building a “new Middle East,” this war bears similarities to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Other actors, including Russia, China, and other powers challenging the international order, also affect the chances of the US – Israeli vision for the Middle East being realized by pursuing deals for advantages in other regions.
This piece was originally written in French for Revue Esprit in October 2024. Translated from the original French by Christiane Bahout Noun.

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