LEBANON’S FOOD QUESTION: CAN WE IMPROVE FOOD SECURITY IN LIGHT OF AVAILABLE WATER RESOURCES –THE CASE OF AREC

Abstract

Climate change and population growth are increasing the stress on the finite freshwater resources worldwide with direct implications on food security and nutrition. This water stress must be averted immediately through improved water and resource management plans and models. The Advancing Research Enabling Communities Center (AREC) at AUB is an example of a mid-size farm in a typical dry farmland area in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon. In order to better manage the water resources and improve food security at AREC, the water balance for AREC was calculated as the difference between water supply and water demand. This is to create realistic scenarios which show us how we can improve food security through increased food production and water efficiency with climate change in mind. Based on Lebanon’s Second National Communication report to the UNCC two climate change scenarios were taken: scenario 1 which assumes a 10% decrease in rainfall and a 13% increase in evapotranspiration (ETo) over a simulation period, and scenario 2 which assumes a 20% decrease in rainfall and a 26% increase in (ETo). By calculating the water requirements and potential yield for each scenario, the results showed us that proceeding with the current practices would certainly lead to a water deficit and reduction of food outputs. However, the recommended improved scenario provided an increase in food production from 432 to 742 tons/year without adding any water requirements. In light of new data collection technologies, many similar sized farms in Bekaa could increase food productivity if the same methodology is applied as it is the predominant food production region in Lebanon.