The impact of rising food prices on household food security and micronutrient intakes in Lebanon

Abstract

The past six years have been marked by a dramatic and persistent increase in international food prices. This increase is expected to have devastating implications at the macro and microeconomic levels especially in developing countries. Given its heavy dependency on food imports and its weak agricultural sector Lebanon remains highly vulnerable to overshooting food-prices and crises. This study investigates the implications of the 2004/2008 food-price shocks on poverty rates and the consumption of major macro/micronutrients of Lebanese households applying the Almost ideal demand system approach on a sample of 7431 households drawn from the 2004 National Survey of Household Living Conditions. The analysis proceeded into two stages. The first stage estimates the changes in quantities consumed resulting from the price –shocks and the second stage estimates the nutritional consequences of these changes. The results of the model revealed that the consumption of micronutrients decreased significantly in all areas, especially in Beirut. The most significant nutritional losses were recorded for calcium, iron and folate which decreased on average by 16%, 3.2% and 14% respectively. In terms of poverty, the poverty ratio didn’t change significantly yet the depth of poverty increased by 8%.