Forecasting demand for recreational Cannabis under potential conditions of legalized consumption: evidence from Beirut, Lebanon

Abstract

With the ongoing public debate around Cannabis legalization and Lebanon and beyond, it is still not fully known what drives the decision to highly accept such laws or vice versa. Recently a legalization law was passed in Lebanon to legalize the production of Cannabis plant for medical purposes. In this study, we tackle the issue of Cannabis legalization in Lebanon and focus on three main objectives:1) estimate the potential demand for CBD and THC products under potential legalization in Lebanon, 2) analyze the effect of being a smoker on the decision to buy these products and 3) determine the effect of other factors on the individuals’ decision to buy and the quantity bought. The study was carried out on 392 individuals from Lebanon using an online survey. Our findings show that ~30% of the participants were willing to buy CBD products while ~17% were willing to buy THC products. Also, being a smoker (cigarette or water pipe or both) positively affects the decision making of a persons’ willingness to buy CBD and THC products as well as it the quantity bought. Results show that being a smoker increases willingness to buy CBD and THC. Other factors that affect this decision include a persons’ perception of THC on health, a person’s perception on CBD and its effect on the economy, and if a person is currently a cannabis user. These findings provide contextual evidence that must be considered by decision makers before taking major policy decisions towards the legalization of CBD and/or THC for medical and/or recreational use. They also remind semi-governmental and non-government organizations to raise further awareness on the dangers of tobacco smoking and its link with the use of cannabis and other illegal drugs.