Seismic Losses Assessment of the Rafik Hariri University Hospital Neighborhood in Beirut and Resulting Patient Demands

Abstract

While Lebanon is prone to major earthquakes, most structures built before the 1990s were not seismically designed, making them vulnerable to severe structural damage and risk of human and financial losses. After major seismic events, healthcare facilities in seismically vulnerable communities witness a drastic increase in demand. As such, their ability to meet the increased demand plays a major role in determining the resilience of communities and cities.

This study focuses on the Rafik Hariri University Hospital (RHUH), a major public hospital in Beirut, Lebanon. To contribute to RHUH's seismic resilience strategy, the study aims to assess seismic losses in the RHUH region and the expected demand for its emergency services in the first 24 hours following a major earthquake scenario. The considered scenario is a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Yammouneh fault.

To this end, this study evaluates structural damage to buildings and the resulting debris, injuries, and fatalities caused by different realizations of the considered earthquake scenario. It then performs traffic simulations to calculate the expected patient arrival rate at RHUH, after accounting for the effect of debris on the transportation network conditions within the RHUH catchment area. Most of the analyses are carried out using the Regional Resilience Determination (R2D) tool developed by the SimCenter, interfaced with codes developed within this study in Python and ArcGIS.

For the 84th-percentile realization of the considered earthquake, nearly 50% of the 3,408 buildings in the study region would be completely (432) or severely (1,210) damaged. Structural damage would result in almost 380,000 m3 of debris that completely or partially blocks 59 out of the 1,403 road segments in the region. Among 113,191 people, estimated casualties include 44 fatalities or mortal injuries, 23 life-threatening injuries, 216 moderate injuries requiring hospitalization, and 996 minor injuries requiring basic medical aid. RHUH is expected to receive 70% of these injuries. Excluding minor injuries, which arrive early on, RHUH is expected to receive 78 injuries in the first 5 hours, 128 in the first 10 hours, reaching 198 injuries in the first 24 hours.

This study develops a comprehensive framework to assess seismic impact and forecast the resulting demand on emergency services and healthcare facilities, using RHUH as a testbed. It can advance earthquake preparedness in Lebanon by offering authorities a methodology to support emergency response planning and decision-making for infrastructure improvements. This could enhance the country’s seismic resilience and reduce human and economic losses in future seismic events.