Modeling Teenagers’ Choice of Walking as a Mode of Transport to School: A Case Study in Beirut

Abstract

Active transport and walking have recently witnessed a decreasing trend in teenagers due to reasons including technological advancements, sedentary lifestyles, and increased screen time. This necessitates implementing new policies and built environment walkability improvements to encourage students to choose walking and become physically active again. This is especially needed in a context like Beirut where the walking infrastructure is inadequate and there is a strong cultural norm supporting car use. This thesis studies the walking behavior of teenagers to school with an application to Beirut, accounting for explanatory variables such as age and gender and latent/subjective variables such as safety perceptions and parents’ influence on teenagers’ choices.

A survey is designed and administered online with teenagers as well as through in-person household visits; students participating in the study are from 59 public and private schools. An integrated choice and latent variable model is estimated based on a sample of 283 students. The results highlight that more favorable safety perceptions towards the walking environment and greater parent encouragement increase the likelihood to walk to school. Female students are less likely to choose motorcycle over car, school bus, and walk, while students whose parents have a university degree are less likely to walk to school reflecting the cultural and social norms in the Beirut context. Younger teenagers have lower safety perceptions, and so do female teenagers especially with increasing distance to school.

Three policies are tested using the model to study the changes in the share of walking as a mode of transport to school. Increasing fuel price or requiring students to attend nearby schools have minimal effects on increasing walking mode shares in the range of 2- 3% increase. On the other hand, it is found that improving the safety perceptions among teenagers is the most effective way to make them shift from motorized modes towards walking, resulting in an increase of up to 17%. These perceptions can be improved through Safe Routes to School Program with improved sidewalks and pedestrian crossings along the route from the place of residence of the student to the school as well as through designating school zones with reduced speed limits and increased police enforcement. The study enriches the literature on teenagers’ walking behavior with findings from a new context. The results can be used by city officials and school administrators to support active transport in teenagers.