Development of general circulation model for a land planet in parallel with weather forecast automation -

Abstract

Large scale circulations of the atmosphere and ocean are not merely driven by chaotic movement of natural fluids, but there are organizing fluid mechanical principles that shape such circulations and drive Climate Dynamics in such an ordered fashion. Understanding the physical origins for such Geostrophic Balanced Flows patterns in the atmosphere is a key factor to come up with a simplified General Circulation Model that incorporates Radiative Conductive Transfer Balance on Land Surfaces. In parallel with the Climate Model development, setting up a weather forecasting tool for Lebanon hosted by the Mechanical Engineering Department at the American University of Beirut was the other objective to achieve. The latter involves studying and assessing how well Numerical Weather Prediction Tools (NWP) i.e. -Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) - can forecast weather for real case scenarios in Lebanon. Sensitivity study and validation analysis is attained to guarantee a working grid simulation before launching automation. In addition to that, idealized calm situations are simulated to understand thermal circulations modified by the unique geographic terrain under weak synoptic forcings.