Surpassing the War Economy in Syria; the Different Scenarios at Hand

Abstract

As the Assad regime was accumulating new military victories and capturing new territories with the assistance of foreign allies, it started to envision the issue of reconstruction and establish the conditions for stabilizing territories under its control. This meant going beyond a war economy structure, which in turn means arising numerous challenges and various scenarios. At the same time, Syria witnessed during the war significant territorial fragmentation as a result of the loss of state’s sovereignty in different areas of the country. This led to the establishment of “multiple war economies” with various local and foreign actors involved in its dynamics. The development of these multiple war economies profoundly impacted the stratification and formation of the economic networks and elite in particular. Similar patterns and dynamics of war economy in armed opposition-held areas and areas under regime control could be found such as informality, smuggling, violence and illegal activities, emergence of new centers of power.

The paper, however, concentrates on dynamics relating to the regime’s war economy. This paper tackles the challenges facing the regime in the prospect of working towards an economic strategy surpassing the war economy. Finally, the article addresses various possibilities to surpass war economy in general or provide sufficient employment to compensate for the economic importance taken by violent and illegal activities during the war; it was important to analyze these elements as they were generally linked to the reconstruction process.