Optimal Design and Feasibility Study of Utility-Scale Solar Power Plants in Lebanon

Abstract

Lebanon’s crisis in 2019 has led to a near collapse of its energy sector, leaving the population to rely on private diesel generators and decentralized solar PV systems to meet the basic electricity needs. However, these temporary solutions are unsustainable in the long term, especially without a regulatory framework or incentives to support the development of a reliable, secure, and diversified energy sector. There is an urgent need to explore cleaner, more sustainable energy solutions that align with Lebanon’s commitments under the Paris Agreement. Henceforth, it is essential to perform a comprehensive evaluation of the feasibility and impact of utility-scale solar PV and CSP power plant deployment given Lebanon’s high solar potential. This study aims at identifying the most promising sites for utility-scale solar power plants in Lebanon for future development, while predicting the electrical yield and cost of generating electricity of at the chosen site. A comparative analysis will be performed between a solar PV farm with BESS and parabolic trough and power tower CSP power plants using molten salt as HTF. The technical performance and cost of the systems modeled will be evaluated, using the following criteria: system efficiency, annual electrical yield, and levelized cost of electricity. The proposed plants have been designed with the same nameplate capacity of 50MW.

A comprehensive feasibility analysis was conducted using SAM by NREL. After performing parametric analysis and optimization of the modeled CSP plants, results showed that the performance of the power tower system is maximized at SM of 2.6 and 13h TES, while the parabolic trough system performs best with an SM of 2.4 and 6h TES. The technical and economic comparison of the optimized CSP plants and the solar PV farm with 8h BESS showed that the power tower CSP plant generates the highest annual energy generation (241.8GWh) with a capacity utilization factor of 55.21%. However, the PV farm had the highest solar to electric efficiency at 22.82% and the lowest required land area of 203 acres among the proposed power plants. Economically, the power tower CSP plant had the lowest LCOE at 14.85cents/kWh, with the parabolic trough power plant and PV farm following (18.81 cents/kWh and 26.98 cents/kWh respectively). Lastly, this study shows that the selection of the optimal solar power plant in Lebanon depends on priorities set by the government, investors, and policy makers. Moreover, this study provides useful guidelines for policymakers and investors and facilitates the transition towards a more sustainable and diverse energy sector in Lebanon.