Simulation-Based Techno-Economic Screening for Assessing the Commercial Viability of Geothermal Projects

Abstract

This study develops a simulation-based techno-economic screening framework for assessing the commercial viability of geothermal projects across a wide range of reservoir conditions. The framework links four key reservoir properties: depth, thickness, permeability, and the associated temperature condition, to production performance, power generation, and economic feasibility. A global dataset of 175 geothermal fields was compiled and analyzed, and a screened subset with sufficiently consistent data was used to define representative parameter ranges for volcanic, metamorphic, and sedimentary systems. A structured INTERSECT-Petrel simulation workflow was established using layered heterogeneous reservoir models and realistic operational constraints, and a total of 1908 simulation cases were generated across the three geological clusters. Simulation outputs were converted into mass flow rate, thermal power, net electrical power, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) through a techno-economic framework incorporating drilling, plant, pumping, and operating costs. The simulation results were then reduced into geology-specific normalized mass-flow relationships and cluster-specific predictive equations, which were validated against both the simulation matrix and compiled geothermal field data. The resulting equation-based screening tool is intended to support early-stage geothermal decision-making by providing rapid, physically grounded estimates of productivity and commercial viability from limited reservoir information.