Projecting the future size of the Lebanese pharmacy workforce: forecasts until the year 2050

Abstract

Background: Despite the rigorous regulations governing the pharmacy profession in Lebanon, the increasing numbers of pharmacy graduates seem to be the greatest threat of demise. No forecast is available to assess the long-term projections of pharmacists supply. Objective: The objective of this manuscript is to project the future size of the Lebanese pharmacy workforce till 2050 and discuss their potential consequences on the labour market. Methods: This study was carried out in collaboration with the Lebanese Order of Pharmacists (OPL), where official numbers were retrieved from the registered pharmacists’ database from 2006 to 2017. The data were analyzed as time series using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Projected numbers were plotted using Microsoft Excel office. Results: The ratio of pharmacists to 10 000 inhabitants up till the end of 2017 was estimated at 17.52, compared with a worldwide mean of 5.09, with a continuous increase seen with the coming years, possibly reaching an estimated 41.17 pharmacists per 10 000 inhabitants by the year 2050. The total number of pharmacies increased from 1546 in 2006 up to 3174 at the end of 2017 nationwide, with a major increase seen in Bekaa (206.35%) and South Lebanon (171.08%) governorates, respectively. Conclusion: Our study shows that the dramatic increase in pharmacy graduates will worsen with time. To curb it, it is important to vote and apply new laws, and initiate a collaborative work between academia, professional associations, and employers from all sectors to find innovative solutions. © 2019 Royal Pharmaceutical Society