Can oil and gas development be a driver for peacebuilding? : the potential for reconciliation and reconstruction in Lebanon from the exploitation of its hydrocarbon resources -

Abstract

Lebanon suffers from many characteristics of a post-conflict state, such as a faltering economy, ineffective and inefficient government, poor infrastructure especially in sectors of energy and electricity, and internal or regional tensions that drive fears of renewed conflict. In light of its internal deficiencies, Lebanon should undertake peacebuilding efforts so as to mitigate the risk of future conflict by improving critical sectors of the country, and establishing a foundation for future peace. This thesis discusses how the relatively recent discovery of Lebanon’s oil and gas reserves represents a potential driver for change and peacebuilding. Research demonstrates that oil and gas development has the potential to improve many sectors of the Lebanese state, including those issues that are most vital to Lebanon’s peacebuilding efforts, such as economic advancement, nation-wide cooperation, and infrastructure improvement. Reforming government and political institutions presents the greatest challenge to Lebanon, and also the greatest impediment to achieving successful oil and gas production. However, certain factors of the hydrocarbon development process such as increased wealth, the development of new laws and regulations, nationwide education, and pressure from civil society for transparency and responsible policy, will all increase the likelihood of governance reform. In assessing how oil and gas could lead to peacebuilding between Lebanon and Israel, territorial disputes in which valuable resources are located present an opportunity for cooperation and joint development. However, the history of tension between Lebanon and Israel, the lack of diplomatic relations, and lack of any will for peace, make the prospects of even basic cooperation unlikely. Finally, this thesis recognizes that there are many inherent risks to using oil and gas as a starting point for peacebuilding efforts. Those hazards have been addressed in detail, and recommendations are given for how Lebanon can mitigate those risks