Multinational uranium enrichment in the Middle East : economic and political perspectives -

Abstract

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a multinational agreement signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 countries (the United States, China, Russia, France, the United Kingdom and Germany), represented a successful step towards achieving international cooperation within the Middle East. However, most of the physical restrictions imposed by the deal on Iran’s enrichment capabilities will be lifted in 10 to 15 years after which Iran intends to resume enrichment to supply its nuclear reactors. Meanwhile, other regional powers are moving forward with their own nuclear power programs. One proposal that could offer a long term solution to regional security is the conversion of Iran's enrichment program to a multinational one where regional countries and some members of the P5+1 act as stakeholders. This dissertation examines the economic and political factors that could influence the proposal for multinational enrichment in the Middle East. It will use a discounted cashflow methodology to estimate the total levelized cost of enrichment for national enrichment plants and a multinational enrichment facility in the Middle East. The dissertation will also present an analysis on the international enrichment market and projected prices. Finally, the paper will also conduct a comparative analysis to identify potential political, policy and economic factors that could influence Iran and Saudi Arabia to move forward with a multinational enrichment venture. Findings show that multinational enrichment holds an economic advantage – in the form of capital and operational costs - compared to national enrichment due to economies of scale. Also, market enrichment prices are projected to remain low due to an oversupplied market and the projected downturn in global nuclear capacity. With the current political tension, mistrust and heightened regional rivalry coupled with the limited political capacity for cooperation, Iran and Saudi Arabia will have to reach some political understanding before moving forward with