Modeling the impact of sustainable transportation options on auto ownership and use in car-dominant developing country contexts : the case of Lebanon.

Abstract

Car ownership and use is a main contributor to the deterioration of air quality in cities. This thesis studies car ownership and use decisions in car-dominant developing country contexts, and quantifies the effect of public transportation availability on these decisions. A discrete-continuous modeling framework that estimates car ownership and use simultaneously is presented. The correlation between the two decisions is captured through error components that represent the unobserved factors affecting the joint decision. People’s latent attitudes towards public transportation and the private car are also assumed to influence these decisions. The model was applied to the case of Lebanon, a developing country characterized by a high car ownership rate (estimated at 1 car per 3 persons), a high percentage of trips made by car (estimated at 80percent in the Greater Beirut Area), and an unreliable public transportation system. This has resulted in an unsustainable situation leading to gridlock, pollutant concentrations in the air exceeding safe limits, excessive fuel consumption, and lower overall well-being of Lebanese citizens. The model estimation results were used to predict shifts in car ownership levels and changes in annual kilometers traveled with respect to the current situation. Five policy scenarios involving potential improvements to the public transportation system, land use densification, or increase in fuel taxes were tested. The findings show that the current public transportation accessibility level has a minor impact on car ownership, but none on car usage. Only if major improvements to the public transportation services (such as major reduction in travel time of the bus) are enacted would a decrease in car ownership and usage be achieved. Model outcomes value this improvement at around 5.88percent and 15.21percent reduction for car ownership and usage, respectively. As a result, emissions, fuel consumption and heat generation will be reduced by 15percent. Densification of zones outside Municipal Beirut is also a pro