Exploring the US-Middle East-China relationship.

Abstract

China and the United States both maintain crucial interests in the Middle East, and Middle Eastern regimes actively court both powers to improve their own respective international positions. Does the US, China and the Middle East form a cohesive triangular relationship in which each side responds to the actions of one another, like previously developed models of the US, China and the Soviet Union? Through the use of automated event data, it is possible to judge whether bilateral relationships are reciprocal and triangular reactions are evident. This thesis is an pilot vector autoregression (VAR) model of dyadic events collected by ICEWS which incorporates all bilateral actions taken by a collection of dyads over the course of two decades. The sample leads to the conclusion that Sino-Middle East relations are distinctly influenced by American activities in the Middle East, while the opposite is present though less prevalent. Furthermore, Chinese-Middle East relationships are becoming embedded in regional political dynamics, with triangular responses visible between regional adversaries (such as the GCC and Iran) impacting their respective China policies.