Waving Between Energy Security and Geopolitics: China's Pro-Active Diplomacy, Iran, and the Persian Gulf

Abstract

China’s rapid economic growth in the past two decades and its increasing dependence on foreign energy resources has made energy security the main driver of its foreign policy towards the Middle East. The Persian Gulf where 55% of China’s oil imports pass through plays a key role in China’s energy security. China sees Iran as an influential actor, due to its regional role, its position in the Belt and Road Initiative, and a large supply of energy resources. The Chinese-Iranian relations go beyond energy security and have geopolitical dimensions. The paper will argue that despite the shared geopolitical interests, creating a multipolar world order, it is unlikely for China anytime soon to work with Iran to undermine the US role in the Persian Gulf. Nevertheless, to improve its relations with the US, China voted in favor of all US-backed UNSC resolutions regarding the Iranian nuclear program but only after long negotiations with the American side to ensure these sanctions do not cause harm to the Chinese energy investments in Iran. Therefore, China does not seek yet to undermine or replace the US role as a security provider in the Persian Gulf. The paper will argue that China views Iran’s nuclear crisis as an opportunity to prove itself as a successful mediator, and rising responsible power, from one side balancing its relations between both sides and on the other side safeguarding its energy and geopolitical interests in the Persian Gulf. Thus the research will shed a light on raising the following question: Has China’s pro-active balancing position towards the Iranian nuclear negotiations secured its energy and geopolitical interests in the Persian Gulf? The paper will address and analyze whether China’s pro-active pragmatic diplomacy and mediating role between Tehran and Washington secured these interests. Moreover, the time frame of the paper will be from 2003 where the nuclear negotiations started until the adoption of the JCPOA deal in 2015 and the election of US President Donald Trump in 2016 which paved the way for the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Finally, the conclusion will shed a light on the post-JCPOA deal era, and highlight the uncertainty of the nuclear deal amid the upgoing US-Chinese rivalry in the post-COVID-19 world order.