Abstract:
Market penetration rates of hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and electric vehicles (EV) remain low in several countries, despite visible efforts from governments and private sector players to promote them. Understanding consumer preferences and stakeholders’ interests regarding these cleaner technologies is essential to develop a comprehensive national strategy. Hence, this thesis develops a demand modeling framework incorporating financial and technical attributes of common mid-size Internal Combustion Engines (ICE), HEVs, and EVs, then uses it to compute Willingness to Pay (WTP) measures and evaluate the effectiveness of different monetary incentives. It also sets forth qualitative research methods to capture the perspectives of different stakeholders. An application to the Greater Beirut Area in Lebanon using data from a stated preference survey conducted in 2018 reveals a WTP for a 100-km increase in driving range equal to 705 $ and for a 1 $ reduction in driving costs per 100 km equal to 305 $. The results are lower than several values found in the literature, probably because studied regions differ in terms of electric mobility progress and socio-economic characteristics. A policy testing exercise suggests that doubling fuel taxes could increase the market shares of HEVs and EVs from 9.25% to 9.59% and from 4.98% to 5.84% respectively. The provision of charging incentives to consumers could raise the market share of EVs up to 6.96%. A combination of both policies could further increase the proportion of EVs to 7.22%. In parallel, a stakeholder analysis drew attention to a multitude of challenges regarding the public charging infrastructure rollout as well as HEV and EV uptake, namely excessive delays in establishing the enabling institutional and regulatory environment along with shortcomings in the electricity supply. This research shows that HEVs are better suited than EVs in the short term and that a solid transition to electric mobility in Lebanon necessitates further planning, especially the incentives scheme.
