ASSESSMENT OF CO2 EMISSIONS FROM THE LEBANESE ENERGY SECTOR: A FIRST STEP TOWARDS CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE DEPLOYMENT IN LEBANON

Abstract

Climate change is one of the major global challenges causing profound impacts on human and natural systems. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report stated that global Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions must reach net zero levels in 2050 to be able to limit warming to 1.5°C. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is one of the mitigation approaches needed to achieve the global climate targets. CCS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the stationary energy and industrial emission sources, compressing it for transportation and permanently storing it into a carefully selected geological formation. Although CCS is considered the only mitigation approach for deep emissions reductions from the energy and industrial sectors, its deployment in Lebanon is poorly understood.

In this context, this research aims to focus on the first component of the CCS value chain which is carbon source characterization. CO2 emissions from the energy sector were assessed under the current baseline scenario. In addition, based on the future development trends of influencing factors, Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) was used to perform scenario analysis for the energy sector, assessing the 2020-2030 planning horizon. The scenario analysis includes modelling and evaluating CO2 emissions under the following potential future scenarios: (i) Business-as-usual, (ii) proposed energy structure adjustments by the MoEW’s Updated Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector (2019), (iii) increased share of renewable energy in the Lebanese energy mix, (iv) proposed energy structure adjustments by the MoEW’s Updated Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector (2019) and increased share of renewable energy, and (v) proposed energy structure adjustments by the MoEW’s Updated Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector (2019) and different fuel type utilization.

Results showed that the forecasted CO2 emissions are expected to be the highest, 16,905 thousand tonnes of CO2 by 2030, under the implementation of proposed energy structure adjustments by the MoEW’s Updated Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector (2019), with the use of Diesel Oil instead of Natural Gas in the energy industries (Scenario 4). The implementation of proposed energy structure adjustments, with the use of Natural Gas (Scenario 1), will generate the second highest CO2 emissions, around 13,162 thousand tonnes of CO2 by 2030. Increasing the share of Renewable Energy, coupled with the implementation of the proposed energy structure adjustments, will reduce CO2 emissions to 10,187 thousand tonnes of CO2 by 2030. On the other hand, increasing the Renewable Energy share without implementing adjustments in the energy sector will not impact CO2 generated by power plants, but will reduce the energy deficit and hence the reliance on private power generation.