Lebanese Agricultural Exports and the 2020 Financial Crisis: Changing Dynamics and their Economic and Food Security Implications

Abstract

In 2020, Lebanese agriculture was adversely affected by the financial crisis. International organizations and local experts reported that domestic production would likely decrease, due to the inability of many farmers to finance inputs. Against this backdrop, officially reported exports of agriculture increased considerably in 2020. This happened despite much of the literature suggesting that a parallel currency market, such as that which exists in Lebanon, should be a disincentive to official exports. To unpack this phenomenon, this study utilized semi-structured interviews with actors in the Lebanese agricultural value chain as well as experts in the agricultural and financial sectors. The study sought to discover the economic rationale for the export increase, qualify the distribution of its benefits, and ascertain its impact on domestic food security. The results revealed that export levels deviated from expectations due in part to the non-existence of regulations on export earnings. Additionally, benefits of the increase are widely perceived to have been accrued by intermediaries, at the expense of producers. Finally, the effects on food security will be difficult to quantify until more data, such as domestic production, is available. These insights should aid in developing a critical understanding of the 2020 export increase, which will be crucial in forming future policy.