Evacuation Behavior in Response to Human-Made Disaster in Beirut City

Abstract

Natural hazards and human-made threats are pressing issues in many urban areas. In general, natural and manmade disasters can be categorized into two main categories based on their lead warning times. The first type is a disaster with a long lead warning time, such as a hurricane, wildfire, or a far-field tsunami. The Second is disasters with a short-lead warning time, such as building fires, earthquakes, or human-made terrorist attacks. Evacuation plans for disasters with a long lead warning time can be made as soon as they are foreseen. However, no such preparation opportunity exists for disasters with less lead time due to their unexpected nature.

Human behavior impacts the evacuation process. Thus, studying human behavior in emergencies is vital for evacuation planning. This study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the decision-making process of residents in case a human-made disaster occurs with an application to Beirut, Lebanon. This study is important for pre-disaster planning, which mitigates potential damage from such disasters.

Using structural equation modeling (SEM), the current study uses the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) framework to explain intention toward evacuation behavior before a human-made disaster in three situations: being at home with all family members, having absent family members, and being at work or university when the event occurs.

The findings of this study show that the PADM framework is relevant to explaining evacuation behavior intentions prior to a human-made disaster incident. The Main insights that apply to the three models are that cognitive factors like risk perception and knowledge perception are important determinants of evacuation behavior. Also, demographic characteristics and hazard cues influence evacuation behavior. Key results indicate that knowledge perception does not trigger the intended behavior of evacuating immediately in the three studied situations. Besides, the results indicate low confidence in the government’s emergency plans and the unreliability of the official government warnings about human-made hazards.

Overall, the findings of this study may contribute to a better understanding of evacuation behavior from disasters with less lead warning time. Besides, they may aid the Disaster Risk Management unit of Lebanon in developing emergency evacuation strategies that: understand the public’s evacuation behavior; customize city-specific evacuation logistics; optimize the dissemination of evacuation information.