Abstract:
In this study, sustainable development is defined through achieving rural community development, and ensuring environmental well-being, under climate change, and is attainable through a system thinking approach. The water-energy-food- climate system approach assesses the interlinkages between each component of this complex system from an environmental, socio-economic, and governance perspective. Climate change affects water availability and water needs, which are directly related to yield and on-farm economic profit. ET and flow (Q) were modeled under SSP1 and SSP3, CMIP 6 using World Bank data, and GR2M lumped model. A qualitative and quantitative data assessment was conducted to assess the sustainability of farm practices in Kherbet Qanafar, 32 farmers, and 2 water managers were interviewed. Following, the bottom-up approach, farmers were asked to propose a solution that deems the increase economic profitability and preserve water resources, considering the climate change effect. Finally, the applicability of the farmers’ proposed solutions, which included, hydrological, energy generation, and agricultural solutions, were tested under climate change scenarios. The results show that water demands, and water supply counter one another. Under climate change scenarios, water needs are expected to increase by 3-11%, while the surface water flow of Kherbet Qanafar Stream is expected to decrease by 68% by 2040. On a farm level, agricultural practices are not sustainable, nor adaptive to climate change scenarios. If farmers continue to practice the current agriculture, energy, and water practices, water resources are likely to deplete, and economic revenue is expected to decrease, forcing farmers out of business. To adapt to climate change and ensure on farm economic development, shifting to low water requirement - market smart alternative crops will ensure an increase in economic profit on a farm level, and conservation of water resources.
