HARIRI’S POLITICAL STEP-AWAY: A GREAT BOOST FOR HEZBOLLAH?

Abstract

Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri suspended his political role alongside his party “Future Movement” on the 24th of January 2022. The Lebanese leader highlighted his step away from politics as a temporary one during his speech, but a permanent one by many analysts before the decisive elections in May 2022 that will shape Lebanese politics for the next four years.

Lebanese parties tended to view Hariri’s step down from politics in three different scopes. The first was his “loyal” allies, who considered this unusual approach a risk that would affect the stability of the country's politics, empowering Iran’s proxy in Hezbollah. The second vision highlighted the step as a chance to gain the Future Movement supporters on their political side in the upcoming era; those were past allies of the 50 years old ex-prime minister. Finally, the third group considered the opposition to the entire political elite and viewed Hariri’s move as the first in the prospected fall of the remaining Lebanese rulers.

One side had no response to Hariri’s step. This is Hezbollah; Until the moment of writing this proposal, no clear statement was issued by any member of the controversial Lebanese party. Observers tend to view Hariri’s decision to support the political inflation of Hezbollah in the country since the strongest “Sunni” backed leader is moving away from the field. Another opinion tends to view Hariri’s approach as a step back to get back stronger into Lebanese politics in the next wave of Lebanese history.

This project will analyze the relationship between “Future Movement” and “Hezbollah” throughout the past thirty years and the prospect situation after Hariri’s latest decision. Also, what will this relation reflect on Lebanese politics for the next four years?