Of Mullahs and men : survival prospects for the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Abstract

The Islamic Revolution of 1979 established an Islamic Republic with republican and theocratic characteristics. Ayatollah Khomeini and the Shi’a clergy founded the new state based on the ideology of velayat-e faqih, or the guardianship of the jurist. The Shi’a clergy in Iran developed this idea over time, progressively increasing their role in society from political quiescence to the current system which sees the principle reins of power in their hands. They were aided in claiming an expanded role through Iran’s historical transformations in the 20th century which saw massive social upheaval and political change prior to 1979. I claim that the current manifestation of velayat-e faqih that is practiced in the Islamic Republic suffers from a crisis of legitimacy, based on its own determinants and qualifications. The political leadership in Iran has thus far proved unable to overcome the factional differences that, while extant in any political structure, are particularly debilitating in Iran and contribute to the system’s illegitimacy. Political expediency and the difficulty in reproducing the kind of leadership that only Ayatollah Khomeini could provide – but which is now critical for the system to operate – both augment the difficulties the system faces in routinizing itself and its exercise of power. I argue that these institutional obstacles in the Islamic Republic, in its current form, make its long-term survival prospects bleak.